• 2.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.0 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.5/game vs a 32.7 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 2.3 there (23 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.