• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 31.4/game vs a 32.7 league average
• −1.2 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.