9.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.0
−0.6 opponent leak — they concede 22.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.8 at this ground — averages 9.9 there (27 gm)
vs them: averages 5.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 36 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBY concede · Points
22.1per game · league avg 23.7
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium9.9(27)+3.0
Everywhere else6.8(79)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)6.2(10)-1.5
Dry games7.8(96)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CBY · Points
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
0%
Hit rate
1/2
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
05-15CRONicho Hynes11.118+63%
04-09PENNathan Cleary10.84-63%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.