2.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
−0.9 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Points
15.1per game · league avg 23.7
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium1.0(2)-0.9
Everywhere else1.9(37)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-1.9
Dry games1.9(37)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Points
Avg diff
+1.1
Avg diff %
+96%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira3.70-100%
08-07WARLuke Metcalf1.816+800%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak3.80-100%
08-07WARLeka Halasima1.40-100%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita3.24+27%
08-07WARErin Clark1.04+300%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad2.84+44%
08-07WARTaine Tuaupiki1.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Hugo's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry1.5