3.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.0
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 22.1/game vs a 23.6 league average
−0.3 at this ground — averages 3.6 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 2.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBY concede · Points
22.1per game · league avg 23.6
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium3.6(19)-0.6
Everywhere else4.2(22)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-4.0
Dry games4.0(40)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CBY · Points
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07SYDHugo Savala2.50-100%
08-07SYDBilly Smith3.68+120%
08-07SYDRobert Toia2.40-100%
07-31MELSualauvi Faalogo4.14-2%
07-31MELMoses Leo3.18+160%
07-25WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad2.80-100%
07-25WARChanel Harris-Tavita3.26+90%
07-25WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak3.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mark's. Computed from this app's own records.