1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.3
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 9.7/game vs a 9.8 league average
+0.5 at this ground — averages 1.7 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBY concede · Offloads
9.7per game · league avg 9.8
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Offloads
At Allianz Stadium1.7(19)+0.6
Everywhere else1.1(22)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)-0.4
Dry games1.4(40)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CBY · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+80%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07SYDDaly Cherry-Evans0.70-100%
08-07SYDReece Robson0.40-100%
08-07SYDHugo Savala0.60-100%
08-07SYDRobert Toia0.62+209%
08-07SYDSam Walker1.00-100%
08-07SYDNaufahu Whyte1.24+233%
08-07SYDBilly Smith1.00-100%
08-07SYDSalesi Foketi0.32+700%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mark's. Computed from this app's own records.