0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 30.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
vs them: averages 2.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 26: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Bradenvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
18.4
9
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Braden 18.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
17
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Braden 0.4/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.4
10
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Braden 3.4/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Braden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Braden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Braden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
34
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Braden 0.2/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.4
17
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Braden 8.4/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Braden18.4
9
SGI1925.5
100
Braden 18.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Braden0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tackle Breaks
30.7per game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.8(93)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)2.8(6)+1.1
Dry games1.7(87)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+40%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLFrancis Molo0.60-100%
07-31DOLKurt Donoghoe1.63+86%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler1.41-29%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.81+20%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles0.31+280%
07-31DOLIsaiya Katoa0.61+60%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.91+13%
07-31DOLTom Gilbert1.21-14%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Braden's. Computed from this app's own records.