1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 30.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Billyvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
71.8
42
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Billy 71.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
42
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Billy 1.1/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.1
82
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Billy 29.1/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
64
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Billy 0.2/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
57
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Billy 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
62
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Billy 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
83
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Billy 0.8/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.1
48
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Billy 26.1/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Billy71.8
42
SGI1925.5
100
Billy 71.8/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Billy1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tackle Breaks
30.7per game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.2(80)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(4)+0.1
Dry games1.2(76)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+37%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.81+20%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles0.31+280%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.91+13%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler1.41-29%
07-31DOLFrancis Molo0.60-100%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu2.11-51%
07-31DOLJack Bostock2.55+100%
07-31DOLIsaiya Katoa0.61+60%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.