0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.6/game vs a 3.9 league average
vs them: averages 0.3 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Blaykevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
53.7
31
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Blayke 53.7/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
41
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Blayke 1.1/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.4
98
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Blayke 40.4/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
47
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Blayke 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
96
Try Assistsfavorable
69
3.9
Blayke 0.8/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Blayke 0.2/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
77
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Blayke 0.7/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
9.1
18
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Blayke 9.1/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Blayke53.7
31
SGI1925.5
100
Blayke 53.7/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Blayke1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Line Break Assists
4.6per game · league avg 3.9
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.3(144)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(9)+0.1
Dry games0.3(135)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+63%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth0.63+375%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.000%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako0.10-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock0.81+25%
07-31DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.10-100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima1.10-100%
07-31DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.70-100%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.21+500%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Blayke's. Computed from this app's own records.