0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 5.2/game vs a 4.2 league average
vs them: averages 0.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (62%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Braydonvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
41.7
22
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Braydon 41.7/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
34
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Braydon 0.8/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.6
40
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Braydon 13.6/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Triesfavorable
100
5.2
Braydon 0.4/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
100
Try Assistsfavorable
69
3.9
Braydon 1.5/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
69
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Braydon 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
56
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Braydon 0.4/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.0
11
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Braydon 6.0/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Braydon41.7
22
SGI1925.5
100
Braydon 41.7/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Braydon0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tries
5.2per game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.3(121)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(5)+0.1
Dry games0.3(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tries
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+40%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth0.50-100%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.11+650%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako0.90-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock0.40-100%
07-31DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.92+131%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.20-100%
07-31DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.71+36%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Braydon's. Computed from this app's own records.