0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 6/game vs a 5.1 league average
vs them: averages 0.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
KLvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
143.3
86
Run Metresfavorable
100
1914.7
KL 143.3/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.2
87
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
KL 3.2/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.2
53
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
KL 17.2/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
94
Triesfavorable
94
5.1
KL 0.7/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
57
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
KL 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksfavorable
75
6.0
KL 0.5/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
65
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
KL 0.6/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
52.2
91
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
598.3
KL 52.2/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
KL143.3
86
SGI1914.7
100
KL 143.3/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
KL3.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Line Breaks
6.0per game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.5(63)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)+0.5
Dry games0.5(62)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Line Breaks
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-48%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROMawene Hiroti0.30-100%
08-09CRONicho Hynes0.71+42%
08-09CROSione Katoa1.010%
08-09CROJesse Ramien0.61+75%
08-09CRORonaldo Mulitalo1.20-100%
08-09CROBraydon Trindall0.30-100%
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy0.50-100%
08-09CROAddin Fonua-Blake0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of KL's. Computed from this app's own records.