0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 5.2/game vs a 4.1 league average
vs them: averages 0.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.1°C☂ 0.5mm (87%)🌬 17.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
129.5
79
Run Metresfavorable
100
1925.5
Jesse 129.5/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
75
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Jesse 2.3/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.7
41
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jesse 13.7/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
81
Triesfavorable
100
5.2
Jesse 0.4/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.1
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
64
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jesse 0.2/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
85
Line Breaksfavorable
81
6.1
Jesse 0.5/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
85
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Jesse 0.9/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.0
82
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
601.3
Jesse 45.0/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 545.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Jesse129.5
79
SGI1925.5
100
Jesse 129.5/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jesse2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tries
5.2per game · league avg 4.1
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.3(126)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.1(7)-0.2
Dry games0.3(119)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tries
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+36%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth0.40-100%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.11+600%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako0.90-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock0.40-100%
07-31DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.92+133%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.20-100%
07-31DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.61+56%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.