1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 34.8/game vs a 32.8 league average
−0.7 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 0.9 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 1.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Patrickvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
127.1
78
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Patrick 127.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
46
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Patrick 1.3/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.3
100
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Patrick 45.3/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
34
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Patrick 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
65
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Patrick 0.6/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.1
81
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Patrick 44.1/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Patrick127.1
78
GLD1851.3
94
Patrick 127.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Patrick1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tackle Breaks
34.8per game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium0.6(5)-1.0
Everywhere else1.6(101)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)2.4(8)+0.9
Dry games1.5(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+17%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue2.54+58%
08-06NQLJason Taumalolo2.32-11%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.10-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford2.03+54%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.40-100%
08-06NQLSoni Luke0.61+80%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt1.62+23%
08-06NQLHeilum Luki2.15+133%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Patrick's. Computed from this app's own records.