3.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.5 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.6
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 34.8/game vs a 32.8 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 3.2 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 3.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Paynevs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
160.8
92
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Payne 160.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.5
90
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Payne 3.5/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
34.6
91
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Payne 34.6/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
36
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Payne 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Payne 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
48
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Payne 0.2/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
93
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Payne 1.2/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
70.2
99
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Payne 70.2/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Payne160.8
92
GLD1851.3
94
Payne 160.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Payne3.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tackle Breaks
34.8per game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium3.0(3)-1.3
Everywhere else4.3(111)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)4.4(7)+0.2
Dry games4.3(107)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+1.0
Avg diff %
+27%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJason Taumalolo2.32-11%
08-06NQLHeilum Luki2.15+133%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.10-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue2.54+58%
08-06NQLTom Chester3.88+113%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns4.97+43%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater3.33-10%
08-06NQLThomas Mikaele2.22-10%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Payne's. Computed from this app's own records.