• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 10.2/game vs a 9.7 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (64 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.