2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.5
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 30.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (26 gm)
vs them: averages 1.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackle Breaks
30.4per game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Suncorp Stadium2.2(26)-0.3
Everywhere else2.5(20)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)6.0(2)+3.9
Dry games2.1(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.4
Avg diff %
+35%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIDeine Mariner3.41-70%
08-08BRIGrant Anderson0.70-100%
08-08BRIEzra Mam2.28+260%
08-08BRIXavier Willison1.82+11%
08-08BRIBilly Walters1.03+200%
08-08BRIPayne Haas3.54+16%
08-08BRIJordan Riki1.83+64%
08-08BRIKotoni Staggs3.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josiah's. Computed from this app's own records.