• 0.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4/game vs a 4.2 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (7 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.