• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.5/game vs a 3.5 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (18 gm)
• −0.2 wet forecast — averages 0 in the wet (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 20: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.