• 0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 0.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.2/game vs a 3.9 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.