1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 1.1
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 28.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Points
28.6per game · league avg 23.7
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.1(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.3
Dry games1.3(6)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PAR · Points
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+133%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUCody Walker1.50-100%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith0.74+500%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan1.80-100%
08-08SOUJack Wighton0.90-100%
08-08SOUAshton Ward1.54+160%
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.44+900%
08-08SOUMatthew Dufty0.60-100%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of John's. Computed from this app's own records.