Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.1−0.4 · line-ball
0.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.9/game vs a 4.2 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Signalsopponent ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Asuvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Asu0.0
0
WAR1543.0
13
Asu 0.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Asu0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tries
2.9per game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tries
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.2(46)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(2)+0.3
Dry games0.2(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Tries
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-33%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.20-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.000%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins1.40-100%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.20-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.60-100%
08-07PENNathan Cleary0.41+183%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar0.71+50%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Asu's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5