Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.4−0.1 vs your line
0.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 6.4/game vs a 5.1 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Asuvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Asu0.0
0
MEL1679.1
50
Asu 0.0/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Asu0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Line Breaks
6.4per game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At AAMI Park1.0(1)+0.8
Everywhere else0.2(45)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(2)+0.3
Dry games0.3(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Line Breaks
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANReuben Garrick0.50-100%
08-08MANJamal Fogarty0.20-100%
08-08MANJason Saab0.70-100%
08-08MANTolutau Koula0.92+127%
08-08MANBlake Wilson0.42+433%
08-08MANJoey Walsh0.40-100%
08-08MANLehi Hopoate0.90-100%
08-08MANTaniela Paseka0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Asu's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5