0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 28.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 4.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 8: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Points
28.6per game · league avg 23.7
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium0.0(1)-1.3
Everywhere else1.3(41)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(4)+1.9
Dry games1.1(38)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Points
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+133%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUAshton Ward1.54+160%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi0.20-100%
08-08SOUJack Wighton0.90-100%
08-08SOUCody Walker1.50-100%
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.44+900%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith0.74+500%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan1.80-100%
08-08SOUDavid Fifita1.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.