0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 6.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Line Breaks
6.5per game · league avg 5.1
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Allianz Stadium2.0(1)+1.5
Everywhere else0.5(41)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(4)-0.1
Dry games0.6(38)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+1%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUCody Walker0.51+90%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith0.31+300%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan0.70-100%
08-08SOUJack Wighton0.20-100%
08-08SOUAshton Ward0.10-100%
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.10-100%
08-08SOUAlex Johnston1.84+119%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.