• 0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 3/game vs a 3.9 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.