0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 3.5/game vs a 3.9 league average
vs them: averages 1.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Matthewvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
190.5
99
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Matthew 190.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.2
86
Tackle Breaksfavorable
81
34.4
Matthew 3.2/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
4
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Matthew 1.9/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Matthew 0.2/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
83
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Matthew 0.4/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
94
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Matthew 0.8/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
30
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Matthew 0.2/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
59.3
97
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Matthew 59.3/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Matthew190.5
99
WAR1543.0
13
Matthew 190.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Matthew3.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Line Break Assists
3.5per game · league avg 3.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.6(42)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(4)+0.4
Dry games0.6(38)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.21+400%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.20-100%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins0.000%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.30-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.10-100%
08-07PENNathan Cleary1.22+70%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar0.30-100%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.