0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.0 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 5 0.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 22.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ·projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Adamvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
5.8
2
Run Metresneutral
63
1715.7
Adam 5.8/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
9
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.7
Adam 0.2/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
2
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Adam 1.2/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Adam 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Adam 0.0/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Adam 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
63
10.0
Adam 0.0/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
3
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
558.0
Adam 2.0/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Adam5.8
2
NEW1715.7
63
Adam 5.8/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Adam0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Points
22.6per game · league avg 23.7
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.0(5)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)
Dry games0.0(4)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Points
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+30%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh0.40-100%
08-09CBRAta Mariota0.000%
08-09CBRMatthew Timoko1.40-100%
08-09CBREthan Strange1.30-100%
08-09CBRJoseph Tapine0.000%
08-09CBRZac Hosking1.14+280%
08-09CBRJed Stuart1.14+260%
08-09CBRMorgan Smithies0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Adam's. Computed from this app's own records.