0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 6/game vs a 5.1 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Olivervs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
41.1
21
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Oliver 41.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
45
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Oliver 1.2/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.1
95
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Oliver 38.1/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
67
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
68
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
51
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Oliver 0.2/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
71
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Oliver 0.6/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.0
22
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Oliver 12.0/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Oliver41.1
21
NQL1785.8
75
Oliver 41.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Oliver1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Line Breaks
6.0per game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium0.1(8)-0.1
Everywhere else0.2(9)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.2
Dry games0.2(15)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Line Breaks
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-33%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDAJ Brimson0.30-100%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika0.10-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia0.20-100%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita0.51+100%
08-06GLDPhillip Sami0.62+233%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell0.60-100%
08-06GLDKeano Kini0.90-100%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Oliver's. Computed from this app's own records.