2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.0 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 2.0
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.6/game vs a 32.7 league average
vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jensenvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
124.3
76
Run Metresneutral
56
1722.7
Jensen 124.3/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
66
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.6
Jensen 2.0/game
NEW concedes 33.6/game · league avg 32.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
6
Tacklesunfavorable
19
333.3
Jensen 2.6/game
NEW concedes 333.3/game · league avg 344.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Jensen 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Jensen 0.0/game
NEW concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
64
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.5
Jensen 0.3/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Offloadsneutral
63
10.2
Jensen 0.1/game
NEW concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
39.9
75
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
559.8
Jensen 39.9/game
NEW concedes 559.8/game · league avg 544.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jensen124.3
76
NEW1722.7
56
Jensen 124.3/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jensen2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Tackle Breaks
33.6per game · league avg 32.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else2.0(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)5.0(1)+3.5
Dry games1.5(6)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-38%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01BRIEzra Mam2.20-100%
08-01BRIXavier Willison1.80-100%
08-01BRIDeine Mariner3.45+49%
08-01BRIGrant Anderson0.70-100%
08-01BRIAdam Reynolds0.90-100%
08-01BRIPayne Haas3.54+16%
08-01BRIJosiah Karapani2.25+131%
08-01BRIJordan Riki1.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jensen's. Computed from this app's own records.