0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.7/game vs a 5.1 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Setuvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
154.8
91
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Setu 154.8/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.4
96
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Setu 4.4/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.2
8
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Setu 3.2/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
91
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Setu 0.6/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Setu 0.2/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
93
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Setu 0.7/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
73
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Setu 0.7/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
51.7
90
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Setu 51.7/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Setu154.8
91
CRO1511.1
0
Setu 154.8/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Setu4.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Line Breaks
4.7per game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.8(4)
Everywhere else0.7(14)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.7(18)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CRO · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGITyrell Sloan0.63+433%
08-09SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga0.000%
08-09SGIMoses Suli0.10-100%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes0.71+43%
08-09SGILyhkan King-Togia0.000%
08-09SGIKyle Flanagan0.10-100%
08-09SGIClinton Gutherson0.20-100%
08-09SGIEmre Guler0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Setu's. Computed from this app's own records.