1.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 26.6/game vs a 23.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
174.3
96
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Tom 174.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.8
92
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Tom 3.8/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.3
46
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Tom 15.3/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
82
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Tom 0.4/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
55
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Tom 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
94
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Tom 0.8/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
65
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Tom 0.6/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
53.5
93
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Tom 53.5/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 545.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Tom174.3
96
GLD1851.3
94
Tom 174.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Tom3.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Points
26.6per game · league avg 23.6
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At Cbus Super Stadium0.0(1)-1.4
Everywhere else1.4(35)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games1.3(36)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Points
Avg diff
+0.7
Avg diff %
+240%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue1.34+200%
08-06NQLHeilum Luki1.98+320%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.40-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.80-100%
08-06NQLSoni Luke0.40-100%
08-06NQLJason Taumalolo0.24+1900%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns3.10-100%
08-06NQLReuben Cotter0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.