• 1.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 50.3/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 1.9 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.