• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 3.1 there (16 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.