• 25.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.3 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 25.7
• −2.9 opponent leak — they concede 31.2/game vs a 35.3 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 31.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 43 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.