• 1.8 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 108.9/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +1.1 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (22 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.