• 5.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 200.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 5.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Opening Round: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.