• 2.3 baseline — his last 4 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 92/game vs a 93.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.