• 2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.3
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 53.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.