• 10.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.1
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.1 at this ground — averages 9.5 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.2 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.