• 7.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.0 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.9
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 164/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.