• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 38.4/game vs a 35.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +0.3 wet forecast — averages 1 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.