• 3.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.3 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 3.0
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 164/game vs a 155.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.