• 4.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 4.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.