• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.9 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.3
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 94/game vs a 93.4 league average
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.