• 1.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 49/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (10 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.