• 10.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.2
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 212.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +2.0 at this ground — averages 12.4 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 12.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.