• 7.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.1 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.1
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 6.3 there (6 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.