• 1.3 baseline — his last 8 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.