• 6.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 209.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 6.2 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.