• 7.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.4
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 152.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.7 at this ground — averages 7 there (74 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.